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[轉貼] Asia's LCD-panel war about to heat up #1263334 - 2009-11-18 05:58:30
馬丁尼 離線
註冊: 2007-05-06
文章數: 267
Asia's LCD-panel war about to heat up

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/competition-intensifies-for-lcd-panel-makers-2009-11-17

By Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch

TOKYO (MarketWatch) -- Competition among Asia's makers of liquid-crystal-display panels is set to intensify ahead of an expected rise in demand and a looming supply shortage, analysts say.

"Consumer affordability for LCD TVs is higher than we expected, demonstrated by consistently better-than-forecast sell-through numbers," analysts at HSBC said in a recent note to clients.

The analysts raised their global LCD TV unit shipment forecast for 2010 by 12% to 165 million units -- in what would be a 27% year-on-year increase.

At the same time, the HSBC analysts said they expect to see a supply shortage for LCD panels late in the first quarter of 2010, which will likely drive panel prices higher.

Goldman Sachs echoed the projections in its own analysis.

"Cost competitiveness will be the most important driver in emerging markets, where LCD TV demand is expected to grow," the Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a research note issued Tuesday.

Shares of the world's top two LCD panel makers by revenue were mixed Wednesday, with shares of Samsung Electronics Co. /quotes/comstock/11i!ssnlf (SSNLF 684.78, -684.78, -50.00%) up 1.3%, and LG Display Co. down 0.6% in Korea. AU Optronics Corp. /quotes/comstock/11i!auopf (AUOPF 1.12, +0.01, +1.25%) saw its stock fall 0.8% in Taiwan.

In wider market action, Taiwan's Taiex rose 0.4% and South Korea's Kospi added 0.9% in late morning trading in Asia. The Shanghai Composite was up 0.2%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index added 0.4%, and Sydney's S&P/ASX 200 advanced 0.7%. Japan's Nikkei 225 Average shed 0.1%.
Finding solutions

The analyst comments come on the heels of a merger that is likely to shake up the sector.

Innolux Display Corp. /quotes/comstock/11i!inxd.f (INXD.F 0.00, 0.00, 0.00%) , the world's largest flat-panel monitor maker by shipments said over the weekend that it will acquire Chi Mei Optoelectronics Corp. /quotes/comstock/11i!cmeof (CMEOF 0.62, +0.04, +6.97%) , Taiwan's second-largest flat-screen producer by revenue, in an all-share transaction worth 172 billion Taiwan dollars ($5.3 billion). See story on Innolux-Chi Mei merger.

On Wednesday in Taiwan, shares of Innolux were down 0.4%, while Chi Mei Optoelectronics saw its stock fall 1.9%.

The latest deal in the LCD space came on the heels of Innolux's announcement on Oct. 5 that it will buy Toppoly Optoelectronics Corp., which makes small-sized flat panels, in a share swap valued at 20 billion Taiwan dollars.

As for Innolux's merger with Chi Mei, "we think the immediate impact on LCD component supplies will be limited, but see this as symbolic of structural shifts in the LCD TV sector," the Goldman Sachs analysts said.

The merger enables Innolux, which is 24% owned by Foxconn Group, to secure production capacity for LCD TV panels, they said.

"Amid the continued slide in LCD-panel sector margins, Taiwanese panel makers lack their own brands and so have been squeezed because of their position as buffers for Korean makers in the down cycle," they said.

The merged company, Chi Mei Innolux Corp., would overtake AU Optronics as Taiwan's biggest LCD-panel maker in terms of capacity, according to Foxconn and Innolux officials.

Analysts at J.P. Morgan raised their June 2010 price target on Chi Mei to 23 Taiwan dollars from 14 Taiwan dollars, but also warned that a key downside risk to the target is "a more severe panel-price fall."

But despite Innolux's capacity building and HSBC's forecast of a supply shortage next year, many top Japanese producers are busy paring their output and outsourcing production.

Hitachi Ltd. /quotes/comstock/!6501 (JP:6501 262.00, -7.00, -2.60%) /quotes/comstock/13*!hit/quotes/nls/hit (HIT 29.50, -0.95, -3.12%) , Toshiba Corp. /quotes/comstock/!6502 (JP:6502 457.00, -22.00, -4.59%) /quotes/comstock/11i!tosbf (TOSBF 5.08, -0.42, -7.64%) and other large consumer-electronics manufacturers have already been scaling down production of flat-panel televisions and raising the proportion manufactured by outside firms, according to a report Monday in Japan's Nikkei business daily.

Japanese companies have been shrinking down their TV operations because their profit margins have been deteriorating on tough price competition with South Korea's Samsung and LG Electronics Inc. /quotes/comstock/11i!lgeaf (LGEAF 90.92, +3.44, +3.93%) , the report said.

But Sharp Corp. /quotes/comstock/!6753 (JP:6753 1,023, +14.00, +1.39%) /quotes/comstock/11i!shcaf (SHCAF 10.70, -0.45, -4.07%) , AU Optronics and LG Display are among the companies that may benefit next year from higher global demand for LCD televisions, as manufacturers cut output on flat-panel televisions, according to analysts at HSBC.
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